**UPDATE (2-18-09) 9:55AM: I’ve added 145 important semi-pro games into the mix. I had a dusty old file of New York Metropolitan Association games (think Brooklyn Bushwicks), from 1938-46 which had not been dumped into the data base. These were EXTREMELY talented teams and these games have a slight impact on the semi-pro column for Negro League teams. -SCOTT
There’s been some great questions raised about the “competitive intentions” of Major Leaguers when they played semi-pro teams, as compared to the “CI” of Negro League teams during the same era. This is the old argument: The white Major Leaguers weren’t trying hard, but the Negro League teams were fighting tooth and nail to win every single game!
It’s impossible to go back in time and find out what somebody was thinking, judge how hard they were playing, etc. But what we CAN do is look at teams as they went up the talent food chain. We can see if there is any correlation between their success and the level of competition against which they played. To that end, I present Major League teams against the different levels of the food chain, 1910-46, (over 1200 box scores from my collection). I’ve used today’s minor league classification system, so you don’t have to convert it in your head. Now what do we learn from this????
|
MLB vs. |
W |
L |
PCT. |
RF |
RA |
|
NEGRO LEAGUE |
83 |
102 |
.449 |
4.1 |
4.5 |
|
AAA |
196 |
101 |
.660 |
6.3 |
4.3 |
|
SEMI |
269 |
63 |
.810 |
6.6 |
2.9 |
|
AA |
198 |
45 |
.815 |
6.9 |
3.5 |
|
HI-A |
59 |
5 |
.921 |
7.7 |
2.5 |
|
LO-A |
24 |
1 |
.960 |
8.4 |
2.7 |
|
COLLEGE |
84 |
4 |
.955 |
10.2 |
2.0 |
I’m not a statistical expert, but there seems to be a strong correlation between the success of a Major League team and the level of competition they faced, don’t you think? Does this say anything about their competitive intentions?
Last note: Semi-pro teams were a lot different pre-WWII than they are today. The very best were really independent professional teams, often enlisting the services of former Major League and minor league ballplayers. When Major League and Negro teams faced semi-pro outfits, it was a big deal. Almost 100% of the time the semi-pro would have their best pitcher on the mound, and very often that pitcher had professional or collegiate experience.
So, the $64,000 question is, How did Negro League teams fare working their way up the same food chain? This is close to 1700 games (ties aren’t listed, but ARE included in the scoring figures for both the MLB and Negro league charts)
|
NEGRO vs. |
W |
L |
PCT. |
RF |
RA |
|
MAJOR LEAGUE |
102 |
83 |
.551 |
4.50 |
4.10 |
|
AAA |
32 |
18 |
.640 |
5.19 |
3.72 |
|
AA |
27 |
13 |
.675 |
5.97 |
4.85 |
|
SEMI** |
1047 |
367 |
.740 |
6.22 |
3.42 |
|
HI-A |
20 |
5 |
.800 |
5.48 |
3.28 |
|
COLLEGE |
24 |
4 |
.850 |
8.80 |
3.40 |
|
LO-A |
37 |
5 |
.881 |
8.53 |
3.74 |
What do you make of all that?
Wow. That’s amazing data. MLB does better than the Negro Leagues against every level, indicating MLB is a superior league. Yet they lose in head-to-head competition with Negro League teams. Were the Negro Leagues stacking their teams when they played against the majors, or were Major League stars refusing to play in these games?
The Negro Leaguers sometimes picked up a key player or two, or combined two teams in what was almost always post-season exhibition games. Almost every big name Major Leaguer, from Ruth to Wagner, played against Negro Leaguers at some point in their careers. Jimmie Foxx played a ton of games vs. Negro Leaguers. I think the one critical distinction is against almost level, the MLB were in-tact teams, but when they played the post-season series against Negro League teams, they were All-Star aggregations. They weren’t used to playing with one another, and frankly, they got overwhelmed by the talent of the black teams. That being said, I think it’s pretty clear that the notion Negro League teams were nothing more than low-level minor league calibre is pretty much debunked. These teams were very, very good…over a long period of time.
Scott, did you look at all the in-season exhibition games that retrosheet lists?
Ennui Willie- I’ve got a hardcopy of retrosheets games, but haven’t had the time to cross-reference their efforts versus what I’ve collected on my own. Some day down the road, when I put this all in a book format, I’ll consolidate everything. Just waiting for the “Magical Baseball Publisher Fairy” to stop by with a contract to help sponsor some of this work. What I’ve posted thus far is really only the tip of the iceberg of data I’ve collected.
Anybody notice how lousy “low Class A” calibre baseball is? I mean, college and semi-pro teams play tougher than low A.
Great stuff!
I’ll throw out the few things that I think I ‘know’ from my own research:
1. Negro League teams, as Scott said, were SOMETIMES supplemented with good players from other teams when they played vs. MLB.
2. MLB teams were SOMETIMES missing a regular or two when they played Negro League teams.
3. Negro League teams ALMOST always pitched their ‘ace’ pitcher vs. Negro League teams, while pitching lesser pitchers vs. semi-pro/other teams.
4. MLB teams sometimes pitched an ‘ace’ pitcher vs. Negro League teams, and sometimes pitched a lesser pitcher.
These 4 items do seem to somewhat ‘fit’ what the data seems to be saying.
Great study!
For some time I’ve suspected that the pre-WWII semi-pros were much better than most people think, and it’s great to see that confirmed. It looks like you have them (on average) somewhere between A and AA in quality. I’ll guess that there’s a relationship between city size and team quality–the better semi-pro teams probably played in the cities where they could draw crowds to pay for better players, whereas “A” baseball teams generally represented smaller towns and generated less income.
Another hypothesis is that the quality of semi-pro baseball was highest early in the 20th century and gradually declined over time. Maybe you could show their records split pre-1920 versus post-1920?
Brent: Negro League vs. semi pro, pre-1920, they won 74% of the time. Post 1920, they won 78% of the time.
I think semi-pro teams played at a high level when they a) had their ace on the mound (often a former MLB or Minor league pitcher), and b) borrowed one or two ringers for their “big” game with the MLB or Negro Lg opponent. If they had to use a full pitching staff over 140+ games, I’m not so sure how successful they would be. But in general terms, I agree with you: They were tougher than most people think.
KJOK: You’re on the money, on all points. One of the things Hal Richman at Strat-O-Matic and I have discussed at length is the impact of the cut ball and spitter pitchers from black ball and what kind of impact this may have had in head-to-head competition. Might this have played a small role in skewering the results in favor of the black teams? It’s worth taking a look into down the road.
Brent- One more thought on the semi-pros vs. low Class A. I believe low-A, pre-WWII was similar to low-A today. That is: rosters loaded with raw, gangly teenage kids. On the other hand, semi-pros were a combination of grown men and college-aged kids. Semi-pro teams might have a clean-up hitter who had flamed out the minor leagues when he was only 22 years old, but he stuck with the game and was now 29 and in his athletic prime, playing outfield for the Savitt Gems or Logan Squares or Brooklyn Bushwicks or whoever.
Savitt Gems!! Do you know much about that team?
Not too much, yet. I know they were good and not opposed to, you know, having a black guy on their team. Negro League pitcher Schoolboy Johnny Taylor got a start with them while still in high school. The team was capable of holding their own with Negro League and Major League teams in head-to-head competition. In 1937, they blew a late inning lead and lost to the Cleveland Indians 8-7. Earl Averill played the entire game. In fact, half the starters played the entire game. The Indians used three bullpen guys on the mound, and gave catcher Frankie Pytlak the day off.
Thanks, Scott. I know about Taylor and am writing about him for SABR. Didn’t know about that 1937 game.
Couple comments up I listed some pre-1920, post-1920 splits. Now that I’ve added in close to 150 very important semi-pro games from New York City, 1938-46, the split changes. Negro League teams defeated white semi-pros at a pct. of .743 pre-1920, .738 post-1920. There is virtually no difference in their success rate over a forty year span.
Scott, this is great stuff, and a necessary first step toward a better understanding of the level of parity between major and Negro league teams.
David Pinto noted in the first comment that white major league teams did better than did Negro league teams against all tiers of competition, “indicating MLB is a superior league”, despite losing in head to head against Negro League teams, and wondered if the Negro League teams “stacked their teams”.
I don’t believe the numbers show any superiority between O.B. vs. Negro League, as I think the winning percentages will show to be well within standard deviations.
Major league teams had an .815 WL vs. AA-level minor league teams, while Negro league teams did “only” .675, but we’re comparing a sample of 243 games for major league level (not a particularly large group) vs. 50 games for Negro league level (a decidedly small sample). We do not have enough pertinent details yet from this report to know how representative they are, but as I said, it’s an excellent start.
I’ve collected box scores and reports for the American Giants and Cuban Stars playing against the Chicago semi-pro teams in 1923 (plus a handful of games for Kansas City, Detroit, and Indianapolis in addition), and the two teams seemed to suffer an unexpectedly high proportion of their losses in the final inning of play. While there’s not enough of a pattern to declare it proof positive, it IS known that the Chicago Umpires’ Association protested mightily that season to Rube Foster over his decision to hire Negro umpires for all NNL games, which cost their members income. During the 1923 Chicago City series (between the Giants, Normals, Logan Squares, and Gunthers), the Defender reported that the umpires were deliberately making calls against against the American Giants at the plate and on the bases, including a number of fielder and runner interference calls, actions that led to a near-riot in one game (Defender, 10/13/1923). The Giants, who had won the city series handily for a number of years, lost this one to the Pyotts.
Thanks, Patrick. I’d forgotten the Umpire Association’s conflict with Foster. You’re right- this is just a start. We’re simply dusting off one small part of the Rosetta Stone, trying to make sense of things.
The Pyotts, in a limited number of games in my database (including, I believe, a number of the 1923 contests) actually had a winning record against negro lg teams, something like 8-5- if I recall correctly. Want to say Foster threatened to never play them again, because of the umpiring issues, is that right?
Your research has certainly brought a new awareness as to the calibre of play in the Negro Leagues in relation to the semi-pro and minor leagues level of play. Do you have an opinions on whether the mainstream players in the Negro Leagues, outside of the Hall of Fame players, were competing at the same level as the mainstream semi-pro or minor leaguer players ? Were would you rank the Negro Leaguers ?
Rod- There’s just no easy answer to that question, that’s why I’m posting the information here. But, as far as Negro League teams relating to semi-pros and low level minor league teams— they simply outclassed those clubs! Destroyed them over a long period of time. Remember, there were very few home games— most of this stuff was on the road. As far as MLB versus Negro League: I can say with a certain degree of confidence that the bottom 16-25 guys on a Major League roster were clearly better than a Negro League team, but that’s mostly because a Neg Lg didn’t HAVE 16-25 guys! They only carried 15 or so players! It might have been tough for a 15-man roster to compete in the Majors over the course of a 154-game season. In all seriousness, I think the Negro League teams had a full spectrum of talent, just like a Major League team: Hall of Famers, Stars, Replacement Level, Awful. One more thing- the New York Black Yankees were one of the worst teams in blackball history. They won less than 30% of their official league games, yet they played about .500 ball against the semis. Not just the semis, but the BEST semi-pro teams. Most of the NYBY games were against the Bushwicks and Bay Parkway out of New York- two teams that are among the greatest semi-pro outfits of all-time, with rosters studded with former and future Major and Minor leaguers. There are many people who believe the Bushwicks were AA or AAA caliber (they were said to have paid their players AAA level wages). So, if the worst team in the Negro Leagues played even with a AA or AAA caliber team, what does that say about the quality of the Negro leagues?